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Prediction for CME (2022-03-30T18:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-30T18:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19597/-1
CME Note: Visible in the W in STEREO A COR2 and as an asymmetric halo slightly NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Associated with X1.3 flare from AR 12975, eruption visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-03-30T17:30Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-04-01T23:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:

:Issued: 2022 Apr 01 1302 UTC
...
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20401
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Apr 2022, 1301UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 01 Apr 2022 until 03 Apr 2022) 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Apr 2022  10CM FLUX: 149 / AP: 020 
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Apr 2022  10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 016 
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Apr 2022  10CM FLUX: 157 / AP: 016
COMMENT: 

... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase over the next 24 hours, depending any possible impact from the CME associated with the X1.3 flare from March 30th. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain at about levels over the next 24 hours.

Lead Time: 2.15 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2022-04-01T21:21Z

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